US Reports Increased Russian Submarine Activity in Atlantic

1. Russia Increases Submarine Presence in the Atlantic
Army Gen. Chris Cavoli, the top commander for NATO and U.S. military operations in Europe, has warned that Russia has increased its submarine presence in the Atlantic. This increase is at a higher level than ever in recent years, Cavoli said, contradicting the belief that the military loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin has been severely degraded by his war in Ukraine. It represents a grave warning for future threats Russia may pose to the U.S. and Ukraine’s other western backers.

2. Russian Submarine Capabilities at a High Level Most of the Time
Cavoli stated that the Russians have been more active than he has seen in years, particularly in their patrols into and throughout the Atlantic. He testified before the House Armed Services Committee, saying that despite all the efforts they’re undertaking in Ukraine, their submarine capabilities are at a high level most of the time – even higher than before. Analysts have expressed concerns about Russia’s submarine forces in recent weeks, but they have largely centered on the recent attention the Kremlin has focused on its Pacific Fleet.

3. Russia Harmfully Impacted by the War in Ukraine
Recent reports suggest that Russia has severely harmed several key elements of its military power through President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022 without provocation. The independent Institute for the Study of War has fastidiously tracked Russian military movements in and around Ukraine, concluding in an analysis note on Sunday that “Russian forces in Ukraine are operating in decentralized and largely degraded formations throughout the theater, and the current pattern of deployment suggests that most available units are already online and engaged in either offensive or defensive operations.”

4. Russian Forces Operating in Degraded Formations
It is highly likely that the majority of Russian elements throughout Ukraine are substantially below full strength due to losses taken during previous phases of the war. While Russia continues to benefit from the sheer size of its forces, analysts have increasingly highlighted the core problems that plague its ground troops.

5. Republican Lawmakers Question U.S. Support for Ukraine
A growing number of Republican lawmakers, including several leading GOP presidential candidates, have raised questions about the value of U.S. support for Ukraine, arguing that those resources should instead focus on deterring China. Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida, a former Green Beret commander, employed this argument on Wednesday, questioning Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander, who testified alongside Cavoli, about the need to continue dedicating resources to Ukraine when Russia’s military has been devastated.

6. Russia Still Retains Strategic Capabilities
Wallander pushed back against Waltz’s argument, stating that “Russia still retains strategic capabilities”, including its nuclear force, the world’s largest, along with its air force, cyber and underwater capabilities. “We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia’s military capabilities,” Wallander warned, “because the stakes of getting it wrong are too high.”

7. Conclusion
The increase in Russia’s submarine presence in the Atlantic is a sign of renewed assertiveness and military ambition. It is a reminder that Russia remains a potent force in the region, and that its military capabilities should not be underestimated. Despite the harm inflicted by the war in Ukraine, Russia is a major military power that is here to stay.

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